Surprising? Yeah, a little.

Fast-forward through spring training, three opening days, Rich Harden staying off and then going on the DL and then you’ve arrived to today. Did I miss anything? Oh yes; the Orioles surprisingly hot start.

As I write this today, the Birds sit at 8 – 6, second place in the AL East behind the Red Sox. A week ago they had the best record in the majors at 6 – 1. Since then, they’ve gone 2 – 5 (obviously) and are no longer the darlings of XM Radio “biggest surprises of the early season” conversation. Still, as an Oriole fan, you’ve got to be encouraged by the positive start. The Orioles were picked to be not just last in the AL East but also one of the worst teams in the majors. So what’s going on? Does this tell us anything about the way the rest of the season will play out?

Answer: probably not.

Here’s the good news though sports fans: this is a new Orioles team. This is not the team that every year strives to win 82 games with a mix of AAA players, veterans, and a few All-Stars. This is that same combination only with NO expectations. They are expected by everyone to suck, except themselves and their manager. This is the key difference. Dave Trembley has this team playing the right way. They will eventually be limited by their on the field talent but for now the recipe is simple. Play hard, play right, play to win. This creed has been missing from Oriole teams of the last decade and that is why there are reasons to hope that this is the beginning of something very positive.

Some key stats to throw out there (all rankings are AL-only and out of 14):

13th in ERA (yikes)

5th in BB Allowed (1st being the most BB allowed)

7th in Team Batting and Runs Scored

Lots of room for improvement. Here is a reason though to feel optimistic though.

2007 Record:

Vs. AL East: 34 – 38

Vs. AL Central: 16 – 19

Vs. AL West: 13 – 24

Vs. NL Teams: 6 – 12

Why have we had such a crappy record? The abysmal play against the AL West and NL teams during interleague play. A sub-.500 record is never good, but 34 – 38 against the AL East isn’t terrible considering they play the Red Sox and Yankees 40 times over the course of a season. A bump in the win column has to come from playing better OUTSIDE the division and outside the AL. If these things can happen, I think we might actually see an increase in wins over last season. That’s a big “if” and of course we have to continue to play almost .500 ball vs. the east and central. This is why that four game sweep of Seattle was so key – that NEVER would have happened last year. The trick is to keep it up.

F it, I’m back.

The blog has been dead for like five months now. What a five months it’s been. Before I recap the top ten things I missed I just want to let the world know that I’m breathing life back into the O’s Review. Why would I do this? Simple – with so many shitty O’s blogs out there I thought I would contribute one that kept it light, positive, informative, and dare I say; funny. So here we go, top ten moments while the O’s Review was on life support (in no order):

10. A’s trade Dan Haren and Nick Swisher for minor league prospects. Billy Beane hadn’t taken teams to the woodshed this bad since the St. Louis – Mark Mulder ripping back in 2004. Just when the ghost of Walt Jocketty looked safe, Daric Barton is going to emerge this year as the next Oddibe McDowell (just kidding, I just wanted to say that. Think .300/.400/.500 with 20 HRs to start off. And yes, I read Baseball Prospectus). Seriously though, Beane got a big haul for those two guys and still has a good core group of players to compete. They’ll be better than most teams in a similar situation this year. 2010 A’s: watch out.

9. The Yankees – Red Sox – Twins Johan Santana love triangle. Kind of reminds me of the Chris Berman “you’re with me leather” story. While all the guys crowd around the hot girl, the Mets just come in and grab her by the arm and leave with her. Carlos Gomez will be a star in Minnesota but I’m pretty sure this is a trade that Mets fans will celebrate for years to come.

8. Hank Steinbrenner rips ESPN and “Red Sox Nation”. I wish I could eat a meal with this man. At least I know I’m not the only one who has figured out that ESPN has a hard-on for the Red Sox. Here’s the thing though – I don’t actually hate the Red Sox. They are quite possibly the best managed major league team EVER. They have ridiculous brains running the operation, great owners, and an amazing ballpark. Their players are likable and talented and their farm system is seriously stacked. That all being said, they will probably be really good for the next six years. After that we can watch the “Red Sox Nation” disappear and then we’ll know who the real fans are. F you fake fans – call me when you can name the starting 1988 lineup without looking or if you even have any idea who “El Guapo”is.

7. O’s trade Tejada and Bedard for a mustache and torn labrum. Just kidding – they got more than this. I think both trades were good and I wish those two guys the best of luck in their new homes. I am sure Bedard will love playing for Seattle and Miggy might hit 80 HRs in Houston. We rake in nine new players which can only help us not suck in like 2010, or whenever. Apparently labrum isn’t in spell check. Interesting suggestions though…

6. Everybody loves Jay Bruce…except…Dusty Baker. Here’s where I get the crazy notion I can run a baseball team. Cinncinnati hasn’t won anything since Deion Sanders was on the team back in 1995. They have a good young team though who in my opinion have played over their heads since Wayne Krivsky has taken over at GM. That being said, they hire a guy who prefers veterans to young players, even though the success of the team is firmed hinged on guys like Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey, and Edwin Encarnacion. They’ve already signed Corey Patterson which essentially sent Bruce back to AAA to start the season (even though he’s 5 for 10 already). The future is soon so let’s hope for the Reds that Dusty Baker doesn’t kick start a rebuilding effort. The central is already tough enough with the juggernaut looking Cubs and the young and scary Brew crew.

5.The Rockies take over the world (for like a month). Friends, this team is scary (as John McCain would say). They came out of nowhere to win the wild card (or as people in San Diego know it “tear the wild card out of our cold, dead, hand”) steamrolled the Phillies and the Diamondbacks before running out of gas against the Red Sox. I wouldn’t be surprised if they regressed this season but this team is for real. They have great young talent, veteran leadership, and found a way to make a purple, black, and silver jersey work. Sure there is the park effect but who cares? This team is fun to watch. Look for them in a playoff series near you in October 2008.

4. Marlins trade Miguel Cabrera to Detroit for their whole farm system (minus Rick Porcello). Apparently Florida felt that the AL wasn’t stacked enough, so they sent the man whom strikes fear in the heart of every fast food chain to Detroit for Andrew Miller, Cameron Maybin, and four other guys whose names I don’t feel like typing. Watching the Tigers, Indians, Yankees, and Red Sox tag the snot out of each other all season should be fun. PS – How do you think the Angels feel? Every year they make it through injuries, weigh the pros and cons of making a big deal, bring up some great young players, and every year they get pancaked in the playoffs. Well, they’re ready for it again this season – only this year they’ll have to fight off the Mariners. Either way, look for John Lackey and crew to be playing golf come October.

3. The Blue Jays bring back their old hats. I cannot stress how happy this makes me. Whoever designed their latest logo/uniform should be waterboarded. How do you destroy such an awesome logo? You don’t; you just bring it back after a decade of horrible unis.

2. A-Rod dumps Scott Boras, makes his own deal. Thank you A-Rod. Maybe now he’ll realize he’s not bigger than the game.

1. You thought I was going to say steroids, right? Ut-uh! We talked about baseball here, not legal matters. File this under “call me when I’m remotely surprised,”the Yankees fired Joe Torre, hired Joe Girardi and the Dodgers fired/forced to resign Grady Little and hired Joe Torre. Cross-eyed yet. First check out Grady Little’s managerial record here. How is it possible that this man has been fired twice already? I don’t get it. He wins and wins and wins, and even when the team can’t hit and is all banged up, he still wins. Anyway, Joe Torre is now at the helm and ready for all the fun and fortune of managing the most snakebitten team in the majors. Andy LaRoche already tore a ligament in his hand, Nomar is being held together with tape, and they’re toying with trading for Brandon Inge. Girardi on the other hand inherits an interesting job. They barely squeaked through to the playoffs last year (and almost advanced in the playoffs before they were swarmed by bugs) and are in a transition period. Transition is a funny word for these Yankees. They are still built to win now but only this time they want to do it with three rookie pitchers in the rotation (and maybe bullpen). The team will score runs, they will make the playoffs, and they will find enough pitching to get it done.

My predictions for the season? Well, since you asked…

AL East: Red Sox

AL Central: Indians

AL West:Mariners

AL WC: Yankees

NL East: Braves

NL Central: Cubs

NL West: Rockies

NL WC: Brewers (I’ll take Ben Sheets in his contract year, thanks)

Postseason Predictions

The playoffs start today and you know what that means! Lots of commercials starring Dane Cook. Great. Oh yeah, also, we’ve got four very intriguing series about to get started. There’s so much that can be said about each series, so let’s get to it.

Diamondbacks (90-72) vs. Cubs (85-77)

These teams met six times this season with Arizona holding a 4-2 advantage in the series. The Cubs have been the NL’s hottest team since June and come in feeling very confident. They have experience, good pitching, and decent fielding. They also have proven hitters (Soriano, Lee, Ramirez) who can get it done in the playoffs and have. Arizona is a very young team. They excelled in one run games and became only the third team to ever win 90 games after giving up more runs than they scored during the regular season. The D’backs also don’t hit very well as a team (worst in the NL .250).

Cubs in four games
———-

Phillies (89-73) vs. Rockies (90-73)

This is quite possibly the most interesting match up of the four simply because no one knows what to make of these teams. Two weeks ago you might not have blamed them for making vacation plans and here they are in the playoffs. These clubs locked glares seven times this season with Colorado taking the season series 4-3. The knock on these clubs is all hit, no pitch. It’s half correct, they do hit but inevitably, someone is going to get the pitching to make it happen.  Each lineup is loaded with impact bats. Each staff has one stud pitcher (Hamels for Phila and Francis for Col) and a decent closer. I give the hitting edge to the Rockies (Tulo, Holliday, Helton at 3/4/5 is simply ridiculous), pitching to the Phillies, and defense to the Rockies. In the end, I think the Rockies will be able to ride this Cinderella wave to the next level. I wouldn’t be surprised by just about any outcome in this series but I’m going to play the hand of the team that has won 14 of their last 15.

Rockies in five
———-

Indians (96-66) vs. Yankees (94-68)

This is my toss up series. Either team could tank, either team could blow the other one out, it could be long it could be short. I just have no idea. The Yankees owned the Tribe this season, going 6-0 against them. A-Rod’s numbers against the Indians? This season: .333/6 HRs/13 RBI, in 6 games. Absolutely silly.

But wait, the Yankees didn’t have to face Sabathia this year. And the Indians didn’t hit their stride until later on in the season. Oddly enough, the Yankees feel like the underdog here. If we call the offensive match up a wash, concede that Cleveland’s pitching has been better down the stretch, and defense a wash; I have no idea. In the end I’m picking the team with the guy who’s having one of the greatest seasons in the history of the game.

Yankees in five.
———-

Red Sox (96-66) vs. Angels (94-68)

These two teams met ten times in the regular season with Boston holding a 6-4 edge. The Red Sox have been built to win in October. They’ve set it all up, have a staff of big game pitchers, and a lineup with healthy hitters ready to go. Even Nacy Drew is hitting now, isn’t that special? So why not the Red Sox in three? Well look, these Angels are GOOD. They are. They are well managed and have great starting pitching. They might not have the names that the Red Sox have but they can play. The Angels do the little things that can lead to a win, and don’t forget how they just steamrolled people back in 2002 with a very similar formula. This one will be closer than people expect, especially if Vladimir Guerrero is healthy. Gary Matthews will miss the ALDS. But in the end…

Red Sox in four
———-

I’m not going to speculate what might happen after these series. A lot can change with one pitch, one AB, one game. I’m just hoping to see some good baseball over the next two weeks. With the O’s and Mets out of it, I’ve got no skin in this game. Only two more hours until Phils/Rocks. Let’s get it on!

More bullshit from ESPN

To quote:

“Scott Schoeneweis, the veteran New York Mets reliever and a survivor of testicular cancer, received six steroid shipments from Signature Pharmacy while playing for the Chicago White Sox in 2003 and 2004, ESPN has learned.”

You can read the whole piece (of shit) here. Never before have I seen such confidence in uncertainty. This is the definition of arrogance. I’m 100% positive that the guy who wrote this story has had penis envy for pro athletes his whole life and nothing makes him happier than taking them down. So I’ve learned.

You know what they taught me in journalism class? If you have a source who won’t let you print his or her name then don’t write what they say. Chances are if they won’t reveal their names it either isn’t true or they shouldn’t be telling you. Apparently Shaun Assael missed this class.

A great game but why do I have a feeling that it isn’t over?

After 13 innings and over four hours, I still don’t feel good about this one. Why? Because when the final run finally did score it might not have really scored. Matt Holliday sprinted home on a Jamie Carroll line drive. Giles caught the ball for the first out and then threw home to try and nail Holliday who had tagged up on the play. Holliday appeared to slide his hand right under Michael Barrett’s cleat but not touch home plate in the process. As the ball trickled away from Barrett, Holliday’s face skidded twice on the ground leaving him too dazed to go back and touch home plate. The home plate umpire signaled safe very nonchalantly too which didn’t convince me that even HE thought Holliday was really safe.  I don’t know…I wish I knew how the Padres really felt about this.  Too bad there isn’t a sports network out there that can cover these types of games.  This must be what NHL fans feel like.

Oh but what a game. Seriously, I was very impressed with the bullpens and the tenacity that both teams played with. If I’m Colorado I don’t pitch Julio for any reason during the postseason. What a disaster. To throw so many straight innings of scoreless ball only to have Julio come in and give up a walk, HR, single is just terrible.  For the Padres, their bullpen looked incredible.  Heath Bell reminded the Mets why they never should have traded him and Joe Thatcher was throwing side-arm rockets.  For the Rockies to win it against Trevor Hoffman, a future Hall of Famer, only makes this game even more unbelievable.

So the Rocks go to Philadelphia to take on Cole Hamel and the Phillies. They will counter with 17 game winner Jeff Francis who has been completely lit up by the Phils this season. Expect a lot of high scoring games and lots of excitement. This should be a very entertaining series.

————–

File under “I hate ESPN:”

Instead of covering tonight’s Rockies/Padres post game, the “worldwide leader’s” coverage looked like this:

ESPN: Sportscenter, covering the NFL week 4, ESPN2: NASCAR, ESPN NEWS: breaking down week 5 match-ups in the NFL

Thanks Assholes – from me to you. By thank you, I mean the 30 second Pedro Gomez clip where he interviews Jamie Carroll. Thankfully I know all about Tony Dungy and his weak cover 2 defense. The Colts play the Patriots 11/4 so you better be ready!!!  I mean seriously guys; it’s A WEEK AWAY!!!  We can’t even set our fantasy teams yet for next Sunday.  Why overload us with the upcoming schedule when there are events happening right now?  Oh good, the world series of poker.  Now excuse me while I hold out hope for just one post-game interview with a Padres player.  Just one!!!

An appropriate ending.

The Orioles 2007 season ended today in an 10-4 thrashing at the hands of the AL Wild Card winning Yankees.  Despite the Yankees commitment to playing most of their Scranton squad this weekend, the Orioles could not capitalize.  They finish the season with a 9-9 record against the Yanks which is of course better than finishing with a losing record against them.  There were so many interesting news items from this game:

- Bench coach Tom Trebelhorn will not be back with the team next year, neither will 1st base coach Sammy Mejias.  No replacements have been announced but Dave Trembley has had lots of interest in the positions.

- Trembley finished up 40-53.  The Orioles lost 28 or their last 39 games.

- Nick Markakis played every game this season – except today.  He finishes with .300/23/112 and was voted team MVP.

It is clear that big changes are on the way.  I am not sure what this means but Andy MacPhail was quoted as saying “clearly, where we are now, this is not working.”  More on that later.  It’s late.

One more thing though: the NL wild card!  Tomorrow’s one game playoff should be fascinating.  Peavy vs. Josh Fogg in Colorado.  Many guys on the Rockies can hit Peavy, the odds-on favorite to win the NL Cy Young.  If he doesn’t want to be golfing by the end of the week, he’ll have to earn it tomorrow.  The winner gets the Phillies.  The match-ups looks like this:

AL: Red Sox vs. Angels, Cleveland vs. Yankees

NL: Diamondbacks vs. Cubs, Padres/Rockies vs. Phillies

I think the best teams did win here.  The Mets, ugh, I could talk all day about what went wrong there.  It’ll be beaten to death tomorrow on the FAN.  Quite frankly:

Bad GM moves + Complacent managing + uninspired players = falling just short of the playoffs

It is stubborn to think you can get by with doing nothing.  The Mets thought they could leave the whole team in tact and not add anyone to get over that hump.  Well, look what happened.  They’ve got some work to do and I wouldn’t be surprised if Lastings Milledge has played his last game for Los Mets.

Oh yeah, my awards ballot:

AL MVP: A-Rod

AL Cy Young: Dan Haren (he won’t win but he was the best and most consistent starter all season in the AL)

AL ROY: Dustin Pedroia

AL Manager: Joe Torre (with ups to Eric Wedge and Mike Scoscia)

NL MVP: Prince Fielder

NL Cy Young: Jake Peavy

NL ROY: Ryan Braun

NL Manager: Charlie Manual (with big ups to Manny Acta, Lou Pinella, and Ned Yost)

American League baseball? YAWN.

For the first time in SO long I am actually very interested in NL baseball.  I think it has a little something to do with two of the playoff spots up for grabs going into the last day of the season.  Here is the skinny, courtesy of the associated press:

NL East

If New York (88-73) and Philadelphia (88-73) finish with the same record, they would play a tiebreaker game Monday in Philadelphia.

Wild Card

In the event two teams tie for the wild card, Colorado (88-73) would host New York, Philadelphia or San Diego (89-72) in a tiebreaker; New York would host San Diego; and San Diego would host Philadelphia.

Three teams with same record

In the event New York, Philadelphia and San Diego finish with the same record, New York and Philadelphia would play a tiebreaker Monday at Philadelphia for the division title. The loser of that game would then play a wild-card tiebreaker Tuesday against San Diego.

Four teams with same record

If Colorado, New York and Philadelphia win Sunday and San Diego loses, all would finish 89-73. New York and Philadelphia would play the NL East tiebreaker Monday; the loser would play a three-team, two-day, wild-card tiebreaker with Colorado and San Diego on Tuesday and Wednesday. In that scenario, Colorado (the team with the best head-to-head record among the three teams in the wild-card tiebreaker) would get the choice of having a bye on Tuesday or playing both games at home.

Crazy, huh?  I’m hoping the Rockies make the wild card, so whatever has to happen for that to occur, I’m down.  I guess that would take a San Diego loss and either a Mets or Phillies loss.  Even then I think there would be a one game playoff between the Padres and the Rockies at Colorado.  Wow.  Monday might be a sick day.

Oh yeah, the Orioles pooped the bed tonight allowing 10 runs in the 4th inning and then going on to lose 11-10 to the A-Rod and Jeter-less Yankees.  Give them credit for making it interesting but then scold them for giving up a 10 RUN FREAKIN’ INNING!!!!  That is totally inexcusable but sadly, par for the course with this team.  MASN flashed a stat of all the huge innings the O’s have yielded in the past month and a half.  It was ugly.  Tampa Bay got in on the action too with  10 run and 8 run inning.  Yipes.

So tomorrow is the last day of the O’s 2007 campaign.  I’m sad to see it go of course but hopeful that next year can be better.  I’ll give out awards on Tuesday or so.  Any ideas?  Write me and let me know.

You’re welcome Red Sox fans!

The Orioles effectively won the division for the Red Sox tonight after knocking off the Yankees in 10 innings. The Orioles comeback was truly something to behold. From the three run, game-tying triple in the 9th off the bat of Jay Payton, to Melvin Mora’s bunt single in the 10th to score Tike Redman from third, this had all the makings of an instant Orioles classic. What an effort by the O’s tonight; you just can’t say enough about the effort. I think fans take for granted how hard it REALLY must be to get yourself up for the last series of the year when you’ve been out of the race since June. No matter how much money you make it’s still tough on the human psyche. This comeback shows incredible fortitude on the O’s part and it gives us real fans something to be proud of – at least until tomorrow

Gotta give some respect to Mora’s decision to bunt with the bases loaded and two out in the bottom of the 10th. The O’s banged out a season high 20 hits. Most importantly, the Orioles cannot finish with a losing record against the Yankees. This hasn’t happened since 1997. One more win and we can ensure the first winning record against the Yanks in 10 years.

One thing that bugged me about this game: O’s announcer Buck Martinez (who I love by the way) said that the problem with pitchers now-a-days was the idea of a quality start. I could not DISAGREE more. The quality start metric is fair because it is basically a benchmark for an effective start. For those of you that don’t know, a quality start is when a starter goes 6 or more innings and gives up 3 or less runs. I’m not sure that a starter could really be tabbed as mediocre for giving up 3 runs in 6 innings on a consistent basis. Buck was trying to say that the problem with Oriole pitchers was that a guy will go 4 innings, give up 7 earned runs and say “I did good enough.” I’m not sure what pitcher would consider that line a good start. Quality starts is a metric that works and it is just that; a benchmark for success. A simple yes or no is very easy to understand and compute. One of the reasons that the Orioles are going home on Monday and the Yankees are going to Cleveland is because the Orioles have not produced consistent quality starts. So, sorry Buck. I can’t blame the misfortunes of the starting staff on a stat.

What a night!

As I write this, MASN just went to commercial after the top of the 10th. Jeter led off the top of the 10th with a double to center and was replaced by Bronson Sardinha. After Abreu moved Sardinha to third with a ground out, Trembley decided to walk A-Rod and Matsui to face Molina with the bases loaded and one out. Bradford got Molina to foul out and Giambi to fly out to Payton in LF.  What a strategy by Trembley.  Even if it failed…you play to win, even when you’re 26 games out.  Let’s see how this one ends…

But wait – did I mention that Jay Payton hit a three run triple in the 9th off the legendary Mariano Rivera to tie the game at 9?  One thing is for sure; there is a lot of fight in these Birds.  Call it the Trembley effect.

Jays pancake the O’s – again

As if Tuesdays 11-3 win over the O’s wasn’t enough, they wasted no time on Wednesday putting on the hurting again.  The Jays scored eight first-inning runs against Victor Zambrano and the O’s and held on to win 8-5.  The loss leaves the O’s just two games above the Devil Rays for 4th place.  It’s sad that we’re talking about holding on to 4th place but in 2007 this is the reality of things.  I mean, who would’ve thought at the end of this season we’d have an “Attack of the Victors” in our rotation?

Did you know – Jim Duqette, the former GM of the Mets and current assistant GM of the Orioles once traded Scott Kazmir to Tampa for Victor Zambrano.  That could go down as one of the worst trades ever (along with the AJ Pierzynski stinker and the Jeff Bagwell to Houston trade).

I promised last week to talk a little bit about the Jay Gibbons HGH allegations.  Now, HGH is not illegal.  It has been banned by MLB and if caught using HGH a player could be suspended.  Even with a positive test, you can’t really prove that a player used HGH – you can only prove a raised presence of the natural compound.  So back to the allegations: I’m not an apologist for cheaters or people that use drugs to gain an advantage.  I will ALWAYS be a supporter of due process and justice however.  I think it is irresponsible and unjust to accuse players of using drugs from a newspaper (read: glass house) and have nothing but a leak or confidential deposition to back it up.  That claim is irrefutable even if it is untrue.  So I don’t care that Gibbons was “caught” for using HGH because he wasn’t really caught.  He was accused.  It’s as good as me saying that YOU did HGH because I saw it in a super secret special report that you can’t see.  The media has to let the legal system and the leagues work these issues out.  It’s irresponsible to report on maybes; that is the first thing they teach you in journalism.  Too bad that today’s “scoops” are usually a maybe.